Biden Has Hope for Second Term

by Dylan Sondike ‘24

President Joe Biden’s worrisome approval rating and general election polling cannot be ignored; however, they should be taken with a grain of salt this far out from the November election. Biden’s current age of 81 has raised significant concerns among many voters. Despite being just four years younger, Former President Donald Trump has shown that his MAGA base of supporters is again fully behind him, allowing him to cruise through the Republican primaries. However, a base alone will not win a general election; independents decide that. While Trump’s base is fired up, Biden can take a few steps over the next six months to win re-election.

Currently, Biden is facing many struggles with the key voter groups that carried him to victory just four years ago. Biden’s struggles with minority and young voters must be improved before this election. With many of these voters having little enthusiasm for Biden this time around, he and his team must devote resources and messaging to turning them out on election day. Biden needs to remind these voters that the democratic platform aligns with many of their beliefs.
One key issue that helped Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections was abortion. With Roe v. Wade overturned by a Supreme Court with three Trump appointees ruling in the majority, the democrat’s ability to emphasize the importance of being pro-choice was a key factor in maintaining Senate control. Biden should once again focus on this issue to turn out women and younger voters.

Biden must better promote the improving economy over the past two years to defeat Trump this November. With the economy at the top of concern for many states’ voters, including in swing states such as Michigan, Biden should sell his economic wins such as the Inflation Reduction Act and fending off a recession.

Incumbents consistently go through weak polling spurts between a year and six months before the general election. Biden is following this pattern. However, it is also known that with the establishment of the nomination and excitement at the convention, incumbents often recover their polling numbers and approval rating as the election gets closer. In March of 2004, incumbent president George W. Bush polled 6 points behind John Kerry, according to Gallup. Bush ended up winning the popular vote by 2.4 percent. A similar thing happened with President Barack Obama who was seen as neck and neck with Republican nominee Mitt Romney at the beginning of the year in 2012, yet ended up winning by sizable margins. Trump’s criminal cases could also be used to Biden’s advantage to sway over voters nervous about the possibility of a convicted felon holding the highest office in the country.

Trump is the favorite at this point, according to the polling. However, when Independents are faced with the binary choice of choosing Biden or Trump on election day, things may get much more interesting. The lack of excitement around Biden may look bleak right now, but should he take a deep dive into turning out the same people as four years ago, there is a path to win a second term.

Trump May Reclaim White House

by Evelyn San Miguel ‘26

Despite many candidates in the Republican party initially vying for nomination, it’s apparent after the recent outcome of Super Tuesday primary voting in over fifteen states that 2024 will see a Trump–Biden rematch. Since incumbent advantage won’t apply in this election between a current and former president, the race will end up being too close to rely on anything but the intricacies of the parties. The election will be down to a few important factors – turnout and mobilization. Former president Donald Trump will likely win due to his loyal and energized base, a lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters, and a decline in approval for Biden by young people, who were crucial to his campaign in 2020.

For Trump, his base of loyal supporters keeps him at high approval ratings according to polls gathered by Pew Research Center. Biden has seen a dip in enthusiasm and approval as a result of his age and responses to problems at the U.S.–Mexico Border and the Israel-Hamas War, dividing the Democratic party and causing instability in support for his administration. The party has seen an erosion in support, as evident by the Michigan Democratic Primary in February, where over 100,000 voters voted “uncommitted” as a symbol of protest against Biden.

Biden never had a very strong, loyal Democratic base like Trump does among his MAGA followers, as the 2020 election was decided on thin margins for the popular vote, with many voters—and importantly, most Independents—choosing Biden as a result of general disapproval of Trump’s administration. That likely won’t be true for this year’s election when Biden is now the person in office defending his administration’s record over the past four years. This decrease in enthusiasm and a divided electorate can pose a major threat to Biden’s campaign, with many Democrats being “crisis-ed out” and losing the will to fight against Trump yet again.

Ironically, one of Trump’s advantages is constantly being in the news for his over 91 felony counts across multiple state and federal circuit courts. Because of this, his base has become more inflamed and radicalized, with many categorically denying his involvement in the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021 and dismissing his loss in a sexual assault and defamation case brought by Elizabeth Jean Caroll.

Trump, throughout his time as a politician, has mobilized a specific group of voters. Older, less educated, and religious white people who historically didn’t participate in elections before 2016 and 2020 make up a significant part of his base, and they have become increasingly motivated as Biden has proved to be highly unsatisfactory. Trump is backed by white evangelists, whose support for him is stronger than ever as he continues to attract voters motivated by “culture war” issues. The Democratic party doesn’t have a similarly fervent core of voters and as the election looms on the horizon, it doesn’t seem like they’ll find it anytime soon. Even as Biden’s approval ratings continue to slowly narrow the gap between him and his opposition, it likely still won’t be enough to win a second term.