Virginia Governor’s Race Worries Democratic Party

By Dylan Sondike ‘24

With the 2021 “off-season” elections just around the corner, one race in particular will give a good idea of what to expect for the 2022 midterms that determine which party controls the U.S. House and Senate. Next Tuesday on November 2,businessman Glenn Youngkin will attempt to become the first Republican Governor in Virginia in 12 years in a contest against former Governor Terry McAuliffe. At the beginning of the race, McAuliffe had a relatively strong lead; however, as the election gets closer, polls have significantly narrowed. If McAuliffe and the Democrats lose in Virginia, Democrats should hit the panic button.

In 2017 Democrat Ralph Northam won his Gubernatorial race by a clear margin of 9 points. Four years later, however, most polls show McAuliffe up by just 3-5 points, which is well within the margin of error. In the state of Virginia, President Biden’s approval rating sits around 45 percent. This is relatively low especially in a state that went to him by 10 points in the 2020 Presidential Election. Youngkin has narrowed the gap significantly with independent voters in the polls as well. If Youngkin can raise turnout in smaller towns, he will have a strong shot of beating McAuliffe and giving the Republicans a big boost of momentum for the midterms next year.

The winner of the Virginia race also has implications for the extent to which former president Donald Trump keeps his grip on the Republican Party. Youngkin has been very careful lately not to discuss Trump’s continuing false claims about the 2020 presidential election; however, he has followed Trump’s agenda on some cultural issues. While McAuliffe has never publicly said he would implement Critical Race Theory in schools, in the past he has praised the idea of teaching about racism and diversity to students in Virginia. Critical Race Theory is an examination of how institutional racism in America has shaped policy. On the other hand, Youngkin immediately said if elected he would ban any teaching of Critical Race Theory in schools on his first day in office.

Youngkin has engaged the Republicans in Virginia just at the right time and should he bring them to the polls, he should have a strong chance of beating McAuliffe. Should McAuliffe win, Democrats will exhale a sigh of relief that they still have a strong base of support and/or that a Trumpian message doesn’t win elections in states such as Virginia. However, if Youngkin does win, the Republicans will have a significantly stronger shot of taking back both houses of Congress in the midterms next fall.