The GOP Candidates
by Amanda Harringon ‘12
In Gallup polling since 1952, Republican Party nomination races always featured a clear front-runner at this stage of the presidential campaign. With 17 months to go until the 2012 elections, the battle for the Republican nomination for president is wide-open. Much of the reason for the uncertainty is that the Republican Party itself is divided. Polls show a socioeconomic divide within the Republican Party with differing views on critical national issues. The data indicates that upscale, more educated voters prefer candidates with a moderate platform on the issues. Voters without college degrees, with lower scale incomes favor candidates with the most conservative fiscal and social views. Thus the candidates are finding it difficult to gain front runner status when they need to appeal to vastly different elements within the party.
Tim Pawlenty:
Why he’ll win: The former Minnesota governor, Pawlenty is a staunch fiscal and social conservative who has mass appeal to the right wing of the party. He thinks Social Security and Medicare need to be cut to balance the federal budget. He opposes abortion and thinks the United States Supreme Court decided Roe v. Wade wrongly.
What worries Republicans: His message fits well within the GOP but has no legs with moderate Republicans and independents. This is indicated by the recent polls that show a backlash by moderate independents against Representative Paul Ryan’s plan to restructure Medicare into a voucher system. While attempting to keep Ryan’s mostly unpopular plan at a distance to attract moderate independents to his campaign, Pawlenty has felt compelled to pledge support for the plan to keep his GOP conservative base.
Newt Gingrich:
Why he’ll win: During his term as Republican Speaker of the House from 1995-1999, Gingrich led a so-called “Republican Revolution” and Congress produced welfare reform, cut the capital gains tax and passed the first balanced budget since 1969.
What worries Republicans: Gingrich carries significant personal baggage that led to his decline in politics, including dating his current third wife while still married to his second wife. Gingrich also labeled Representative Paul Ryan’s plan for reducing the federal deficit as “Right-Wing Social Engineering” which makes him unpopular with party loyalists who see Ryan’s plan as a legitimate blueprint for restructuring the economy.
Mitt Romney:
Why he’ll win: Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, was McCain’s top competitor for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, and he is the most nationally well known candidate. When polled, GOP conservative voters and those who characterize themselves as more moderate or Republican-leaning independents favor Romney.
What worries Republicans: Unless Romney can hold onto his base of educated, higher-income voters while also selling a conservative platform, he is unlikely to succeed in his quest for the office. His candidacy hinges on two key questions: can he get his party and the country to rally behind a candidate with Mormon religious beliefs; and will his 2006 healthcare reform for the state of Massachusetts, which also has an “individual mandate” to purchase insurance, similar to Obama’s plan, contribute to the split in the party?
Rick Santorum:
Why he’ll win: The Senator from Pennsylvania, Santorum is known for his confrontational, partisan style of politics. He has openly stated his strong opposition to amnesty for illegal immigrants and believes that Islamic “fascism” is the greatest challenge of our generation. These views mirror those of the Republican grass roots.
What worries Republicans: How does one recover from the worst defeat of an incumbent in a Senate election in 30 years? Clearly his message did not resonate in Pennsylvania, seen as a key battleground state. If he cannot hold on to his position as Senator of Pennsylvania, how can he expect to have nationwide appeal?
Ron Paul:
Why he’ll win: Paul has amassed a passionate following for his libertarian positions on critical issues such as foreign affairs and domestic monetary policy. Libertarians embrace individual responsibility, oppose government bureaucracy and taxes, tolerate diverse lifestyles, support the free market and defend civil liberties.
What worries Republicans: Research shows that Libertarians represent only 10-20 percent of the American voting base. Therefore, Paul attempted to join a coalition with the Republican party. However, this strategy has proven to be a challenging fit with a platform that promotes legalization of drugs and calls for a sudden end to the “War on Terror.”
Jon Huntsman:
Why he’ll win: Huntsman is a fiscal conservative, former U.S. Ambassador to China and a former Governor of Utah. He has conservative to moderate positions on some social issues like gay rights which positions him as a center right Republican that can hold onto conservative swing voters.
What worries Republicans: He is a relatively unknown figure and would need to market a well defined conservative platform on key issues to separate himself from President Obama who chose him to be ambassador. Since he has a moderate opinion on many social issues, he may not appeal to strong right wing voters.